The clocks haven't changed yet, but the house already has. The furnace has come on for the first time since spring, there's a pumpkin on someone's porch, and the Thanksgiving turkey has quietly become a line in the grocery budget.
October in Ontario tends to be the month where small household costs start stacking up: the snow tires that need booking, the heating bill that arrives a bit larger than the last one, the Halloween candy bought twice because the first bag didn't last. None of it is dramatic. It's just the season of looking at the numbers a bit more closely.
So here is where mortgage rates stood on 1 October, with what changed since September.
Where rates are
| 1 October | A month earlier | A year earlier | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-year fixed, our estimate | 4.28% | 4.06% | 3.39% |
| 3-year fixed, our estimate | 4.11% | 3.91% | 3.19% |
| Variable, our estimate | 3.50% | 3.50% | 3.75% |
| Government of Canada 5-year bond yield | 3.62% | 3.40% | 2.73% |
| Prime rate | 4.45% | 4.45% | 4.70% |
A quick note on why these move separately. Fixed rates follow Government of Canada bond yields, because lenders price fixed mortgages off them. Variable rates follow the Bank of Canada's policy rate, which sets prime, and a variable mortgage is priced from prime.
In September the five-year bond yield rose from 3.40% to 3.62%, and our five-year fixed estimate moved with it, from 4.06% to 4.28%. The three-year estimate went from 3.91% to 4.11%. Prime stayed at 4.45%, so the variable estimate stayed at 3.50%. Compared with a year ago, fixed estimates are higher and the variable estimate is a little lower, which can look odd until you remember they follow different things.
These are our estimates, not offers or quotes from any lender. Your own rate depends on your lender, your term and your situation, so you may wish to confirm it directly.
What that means in dollars
Over September, the move in the five-year estimate works out to about $12 a month for every $100,000 borrowed, on a 25-year amortization. On a $400,000 mortgage that's roughly $48 a month; on $500,000, about $60.
Over the full year, the change is about $48 a month per $100,000. That's around $192 a month on $400,000 and $240 on $500,000. It's a comparison that may matter if your renewal is the first time you've looked since last fall.
What else happened
The Bank of Canada held its policy rate at 2.25% on 2 September, which is why prime didn't move. The next scheduled announcement is 28 October.
Statistics Canada reported on 14 September that consumer prices rose 3.0 per cent in August from a year earlier, the same pace as July. Excluding gasoline, the increase was 2.4 per cent. Anyone who has noticed the grocery bill creeping up won't be surprised: food bought from stores was up 2.8 per cent.
The Canadian Real Estate Association said home sales across the country slipped 0.7 per cent in August from July, with the average sale price at $668,219. New listings rose 3.3 per cent over the same stretch.
If a renewal or a break is on your mind
If a renewal is coming up, the renewal calculator shows what your payment could become at a different rate. If you're curious about leaving a term early, the break calculator estimates the penalty and compares it with staying, and "not worth it right now" is a perfectly good answer. If you're weighing rolling other debt into the mortgage, there's a debt consolidation calculator. And where our rates come from explains how the estimates above are put together.
None of this needs doing this week. You can choose to look, or choose to leave it for another month.
It's the season for a kettle on the stove, a fresh furnace filter and a snow-tire appointment before the first flurries. The mortgage numbers will still be here.
Figures are estimates from Bank of Canada data as of the date shown and are not offers or quotes. This is general information, not advice.